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Congratulations on surviving the final international break of 2019! The domestic schedule is about to get crazy over the next six weeks, so buckle in.
It was another profitable weekend on Matchday 12 as we raised our season’s profits to +$1,295 on the back of a 19-24 record. Again, it’s all about value.
Here are some more winners as the Premier League returns this weekend:
|West Ham (+320)||Draw (+333)||Tottenham (-143)|
|Arsenal (-223)||Draw (+375)||Southampton (+550)|
|Bournemouth (+175)||Draw (+230)||Wolverhampton (+160)|
|Brighton (+275)||Draw (+250)||Leicester (+100)|
|Crystal Palace (+650)||Draw (+375)||Liverpool (-250)|
|Everton (-275)||Draw (+410)||Norwich (+700)|
|Watford (+130)||Draw (+240)||Burnley (+210)|
|Manchester City (-225)||Draw (+400)||Chelsea (+550)|
|Sheffield United (+260)||Draw (+230)||Manchester United (+110)|
|Aston Villa (+105)||Draw (+240)||Newcastle (+270)|
Leicester City (+100) at Brighton (+275), Draw (+250)
Leicester have been nothing short of spectacular this season and are Liverpool’s closest title challengers through 12 matches. They’re calm and composed in defense and a constant threat on the front foot, but this will be a real tough test for them.
Graham Potter has done excellent work with Brighton this season, and the stylistic improvements have been obvious. For the first time in a while, they are much more brazen in attack, confident in getting after their opponents.
This contest, which should be a highly energetic affair, is an underrated candidate for game of the week. The Seagulls are tough to beat at the Amex and should be able to steal a point.
Pick: Draw (+250)
Liverpool (-250) at Crystal Palace (+650), Draw (+375)
While Brighton vs. Leicester may be the most entertaining match of the weekend, this one could be the least. Crystal Palace will defend deep straight from the off and will look to make life very difficult for Liverpool. Sides managed by Roy Hodgson have a real knack for soaking up pressure and frustrating their opponents.
The Reds will know what to expect. They’re so good at keeping their composure, staying persistent, and eventually finding a way through in these types of games. However, this feels like a bit of a difficult spot for them fresh off the break, having beaten Manchester City in their previous match. With Mohamed Salah also expected to miss out, there’s just too much value to not bet the draw.
Pick: Draw (+375)
Burnley (+210) at Watford (+130), Draw (+240)
The mood in the Watford camp will have been vastly improved after picking up their first win of the season before the break. It’s just one defeat from their last five now for the Hornets, who are inching their way out of the bottom three.
However, in typical Burnley fashion, the Clarets will make it incredibly tough on the hosts. Sean Dyche’s side picked up a win before the break as well to end a three-match skid, and the manager will stress the significance of this match to his side, as they look to avoid being pulled into the relegation scrap.
This really has draw written all over it. Burnley aren’t going to leave this match without a point, but they’re not going into Vicarage Road and beating an in-form Watford side, either. The Clarets have lost just one of their last five away league games against Watford, with three of them ending in a stalemate.
Pick: Draw (+240)
Manchester United (+110) at Sheffield United (+260), Draw (+230)
It has reached a point where it’s almost mandatory to be backing Sheffield United every week. They continue to be undervalued despite losing just three of their first 12 matches, while Manchester United again get an inflated line as a result of their reputation.
The perceived gap between these sides isn’t anywhere close to reality. Chris Wilder continues to do a fantastic job with the Blades as tactically, they always seem to have a leg up on the opposition. United are slowly getting their confidence back, but a win at Carrow Road is hardly evidence to suggest they’ve improved their away form.
The Red Devils have still won just once from six away matches in the league this season (two draws, three losses), while the Blades haven’t lost a top-flight match since September. Put your money on Sheffield United before considering a bet on the visitors here, although a draw seems the likeliest result.
Pick: Draw +230
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for BetaSoccer. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.