Premier League Matchday 17 odds and betting preview

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A late Southampton goal relegated us to a 2-3 week, but it was another matchday in the black, nonetheless, as we moved to 25-36-1 on the season for a net profit of $1,245.

There’s a lot of chalk on the board this weekend and, in most cases, I don’t feel confident arguing against the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester, or Manchester City winning.

That means fewer plays this matchday, but there are still some nice spots to exploit as we look to keep building those profits.

HOME AWAY
Liverpool (-600) Draw (+650) Watford (+1400)
Burnley (+100) Draw (+240) Newcastle (+275)
Chelsea (-400) Draw (+500) Bournemouth (+900)
Leicester (-500) Draw (+550) Norwich (+1200)
Sheffield United (-125) Draw (+270) Aston Villa (+320)
Southampton (-118) Draw (+280) West Ham (+280)
Manchester United (-134) Draw (+270) Everton (+350)
Wolverhampton (+220) Draw (+250) Tottenham (+115)
Arsenal (+450) Draw (+425) Manchester City (-225)
Crystal Palace (+140) Draw (+220) Brighton (+200)

Newcastle (+275) at Burnley (+100), Draw (+240)

Burnley will be out to prove that conceding 11 goals over three consecutive losses isn’t in the club’s DNA under Sean Dyche. The Clarets will have had a miserable time in training during the week and should respond Saturday as a result. They lost 4-1 to Manchester City the last time they played at Turf Moor – a second successive defeat on their home pitch.

You can almost assuredly expect Dyche to get a spirited performance out of his side, but it’s hard to bet against Newcastle at the moment. The Magpies have lost just once in their past seven games and won at Sheffield United in their last match away from home. Given their form and Burnley’s urgency to end its losing skid, a draw seems an appropriate result that should please both clubs.

Pick: Draw (+240)

West Ham (+280) at Southampton (-118), Draw (+280)

Southampton’s home schedule over the first three months of the season has been brutal, as they’ve had to play four of the top five teams in the current standings. Though it remains in the relegation zone, Ralph Hasenhuttl has worked out the kinks in his side, beating both Watford and Norwich at St Mary’s.

Those aren’t remarkable wins, but to survive in the Premier League, teams must claim maximum points from the games they should win. This weekend offers another one of those fixtures as Southampton host West Ham, who have suffered seven defeats in their last nine matches. With the clubs trending in opposite directions and Manuel Pellegrini facing the sack, back the in-form side to get the win on the south coast.

Pick: Southampton (-118)

Tottenham (+115) at Wolverhampton (+220), Draw (+250)

Life under Jose Mourinho is off to a positive start for Tottenham, as is always to be expected following a managerial change. Spurs have won three of four in the league, though they’ve failed their biggest tests in losses to Manchester United and Bayern Munich, the latter of which occurring in the Champions League.

A trip to Wolverhampton is more reminiscent of those fixtures than it is to their wins over West Ham, Bournemouth, and Burnley. Wolves are unbeaten in 11 league matches and were unlucky to lose this fixture 3-2 last season, though they did win 3-1 in north London. Spurs should respond after losing to Bayern in midweek with many of their regulars rested, but Wolves are so tough to beat at home, which means there’s excellent value here with the draw.

Pick: Draw (+250)

Brighton (+200) at Crystal Palace (+140), Draw (+220)

It’s always difficult to predict a derby, though it helps knowing motivation won’t be an issue for either side. Brighton did the double over Palace last season, which means there should be quite a bit of urgency from the hosts here. Roy Hodgson has the Eagles playing excellent football at the moment, but the Seagulls are right on par under Graham Potter.

Brighton are coming off an impressive away win at the Emirates followed by an absorbing draw against Wolves. Given Palace’s struggles in attack – four goals in their last six games – the Seagulls should be able to leave the capital with a point. They’ve had no issues in front of goal and you get the sense that scoring just one here would be enough to secure a draw.

Pick: Draw (+220)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for BetaSoccer. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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